State of the GOP
Well, I am happy to report that, after a long hiatus away from the blogosphere --- much of it spent commenting on other blogs and sending lengthy emails to the Nat'l Review crew and Andrew Sullivan regarding my many political thoughts --- I have decided to commence blogging on the coming midterm elections.
When I last rode off into the cyber-sunset, President Bush had just been sworn in for a second term. Republicans had secured solid control of both houses of Congress, and the new GOP majority was prepared to enact conservative governance upon the nation at last. Everything was going according to plan.
How things change in only 16 months. The events of the last year and a half, for better or worse, have seriously endangered continuing Republican governance to the point of putting the House of Representatives in play for the first time in 12 years (the MSM will have you think it's always in play, and that Democrats are always just on the verge of retaking it; don't believe them). President Bush is now officially a lame duck and has plummeted to Nixonian levels of public approval. And Hillary Rodham views the White House from Capitol Hill with all the charm of Narnia's White Witch.
Here, as I see it, is the state of today's GOP:
1) POTUS is finished. His approval rating is hovering in the 30s. The president has amassed a mixed record that makes him sort of the conservative version of LBJ. GWB has governed both as a conservative (taxes, Afghanistan) and as a liberal (Medicare, spending). He's been both a neocon (immigration, Iraq) and a paleocon (steel tariffs). He's made some brilliant political and policy moves (Chief Justice Roberts) but has carefully balanced them out with inept nuttiness (Harriet Miers). His goals have more often than not been right for the country, but his execution of those goals has been so inept that he's either failed in their marketing (Social Security reform), in their implementation (Iraq), or both. He probably lost the public trust with his mishandling of Katrina, and his impact on conservatism has not been unlike that of his father. Like Bush the Elder, the president has confused conservatism to the point that not even conservatives agree on what it means. It will take a strong new leader to clarify it once again.
2) SCOTUS is enhanced! Conservatives should be pleased at the two newest additions to the Court. Chief Justice Roberts and Associate Justice Alito promise to be mainstream conservative jurists in the mold of Rehnquist, each of whom brings a top-notch intellect to the Court.
3) Republicans will either lose the House this fall or come very, very close. This is due to several converging dynamics, including the continued conversion of northeastern RINOs into full-blown Democrats (similar to what happened during the '90s in the South, when the DINOs finally converted into Republicans) as well as GOP retirements and a strong anti-GOP sentiment in the country. Most ominous is the generic congressional ballot, which shows the Democratic candidate beating the Republican in the low double-digits in almost every poll. The Democrats need 16 Republican seats in order to elect Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House. This time, they might just get it.
4) The U.S. Senate is probably safe...for now. Republicans have strong pickup opportunities in Maryland, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Washington. Democrats have similar opportunities in Ohio, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. The only sure switches this fall are Pennsylvania and Montana, which are almost certain to go Democrat. In order to capture the Senate, Democrats would have to run the table on competitive seats. They'd have to win all of the vulnerable GOP seats and hold each of theirs as well. That's a tall order, even for this year. Republicans will likely lose a couple of seats, but maintain control of the body.
5) Something important is happening in the states this year that may be the GOP's silver lining come November. It appears that the electoral-rich upper midwest --- the most important swing region of the current political climate --- is about to elect a plethora of conservative GOP governors. Moreover, many will be booting Democrat incumbents in order to do so. Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota may all either elect or reelect Republicans to their respective state houses this fall. Doing so would be hugely important. First, it would prove to everyone that these states do elect conservatives, and that the GOP should scrap this silly red/blue game (which they're probably going to lose in 2008) and go for as much of the country as possible. Secondly, it will ensure that the majority of governorships, and a bulk of big-state governorships, stay in GOP hands, even as Democrats take New York and Massachusetts this November. Third, it will develop a strong slate of potential GOP senators and presidential candidates from this all-important region to future GOP dominance.
6) 2008. It's on every political junkie's mind. Hillary Clinton is the near-certain Democratic nominee. Her control over the machinery of the Democratic Party combined with her massive support among grassroots Dems --- she generally leads her closest Democratic rivals by 20 points or more --- make her nomination inevitable. She will be challenged by Feingold on her left and Warner on her right, among others, but Hillary's combo of money, machinery, and mass-support will win the day. On the GOP side, things are harder to predict. McCain and Rudy still lead in the scientific polls, but that's largely due to a lack of name recognition among the other candidates. Online polls and straw polls of activists show that Allen and Romney are the two dark horses that have a shot. Each of these candidates has various positives and negatives that will be dissected on this blog in the weeks and months to come. Suffice it to say that there is no perfect GOP candidate, and that, out of the Big Four, Rudy, McCain, and Romney each would have a pretty good shot at holding the White House for Republicans, while Allen would probably lose. More on this later.
There's no question that things aren't looking up for the GOP right now, but all is not lost for the dream of a long-term Republican majority. I invite you to return to this blog regularly and help me dissect just exactly where the GOP should go from here and how to make this dream a reality.
When I last rode off into the cyber-sunset, President Bush had just been sworn in for a second term. Republicans had secured solid control of both houses of Congress, and the new GOP majority was prepared to enact conservative governance upon the nation at last. Everything was going according to plan.
How things change in only 16 months. The events of the last year and a half, for better or worse, have seriously endangered continuing Republican governance to the point of putting the House of Representatives in play for the first time in 12 years (the MSM will have you think it's always in play, and that Democrats are always just on the verge of retaking it; don't believe them). President Bush is now officially a lame duck and has plummeted to Nixonian levels of public approval. And Hillary Rodham views the White House from Capitol Hill with all the charm of Narnia's White Witch.
Here, as I see it, is the state of today's GOP:
1) POTUS is finished. His approval rating is hovering in the 30s. The president has amassed a mixed record that makes him sort of the conservative version of LBJ. GWB has governed both as a conservative (taxes, Afghanistan) and as a liberal (Medicare, spending). He's been both a neocon (immigration, Iraq) and a paleocon (steel tariffs). He's made some brilliant political and policy moves (Chief Justice Roberts) but has carefully balanced them out with inept nuttiness (Harriet Miers). His goals have more often than not been right for the country, but his execution of those goals has been so inept that he's either failed in their marketing (Social Security reform), in their implementation (Iraq), or both. He probably lost the public trust with his mishandling of Katrina, and his impact on conservatism has not been unlike that of his father. Like Bush the Elder, the president has confused conservatism to the point that not even conservatives agree on what it means. It will take a strong new leader to clarify it once again.
2) SCOTUS is enhanced! Conservatives should be pleased at the two newest additions to the Court. Chief Justice Roberts and Associate Justice Alito promise to be mainstream conservative jurists in the mold of Rehnquist, each of whom brings a top-notch intellect to the Court.
3) Republicans will either lose the House this fall or come very, very close. This is due to several converging dynamics, including the continued conversion of northeastern RINOs into full-blown Democrats (similar to what happened during the '90s in the South, when the DINOs finally converted into Republicans) as well as GOP retirements and a strong anti-GOP sentiment in the country. Most ominous is the generic congressional ballot, which shows the Democratic candidate beating the Republican in the low double-digits in almost every poll. The Democrats need 16 Republican seats in order to elect Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House. This time, they might just get it.
4) The U.S. Senate is probably safe...for now. Republicans have strong pickup opportunities in Maryland, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Washington. Democrats have similar opportunities in Ohio, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. The only sure switches this fall are Pennsylvania and Montana, which are almost certain to go Democrat. In order to capture the Senate, Democrats would have to run the table on competitive seats. They'd have to win all of the vulnerable GOP seats and hold each of theirs as well. That's a tall order, even for this year. Republicans will likely lose a couple of seats, but maintain control of the body.
5) Something important is happening in the states this year that may be the GOP's silver lining come November. It appears that the electoral-rich upper midwest --- the most important swing region of the current political climate --- is about to elect a plethora of conservative GOP governors. Moreover, many will be booting Democrat incumbents in order to do so. Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota may all either elect or reelect Republicans to their respective state houses this fall. Doing so would be hugely important. First, it would prove to everyone that these states do elect conservatives, and that the GOP should scrap this silly red/blue game (which they're probably going to lose in 2008) and go for as much of the country as possible. Secondly, it will ensure that the majority of governorships, and a bulk of big-state governorships, stay in GOP hands, even as Democrats take New York and Massachusetts this November. Third, it will develop a strong slate of potential GOP senators and presidential candidates from this all-important region to future GOP dominance.
6) 2008. It's on every political junkie's mind. Hillary Clinton is the near-certain Democratic nominee. Her control over the machinery of the Democratic Party combined with her massive support among grassroots Dems --- she generally leads her closest Democratic rivals by 20 points or more --- make her nomination inevitable. She will be challenged by Feingold on her left and Warner on her right, among others, but Hillary's combo of money, machinery, and mass-support will win the day. On the GOP side, things are harder to predict. McCain and Rudy still lead in the scientific polls, but that's largely due to a lack of name recognition among the other candidates. Online polls and straw polls of activists show that Allen and Romney are the two dark horses that have a shot. Each of these candidates has various positives and negatives that will be dissected on this blog in the weeks and months to come. Suffice it to say that there is no perfect GOP candidate, and that, out of the Big Four, Rudy, McCain, and Romney each would have a pretty good shot at holding the White House for Republicans, while Allen would probably lose. More on this later.
There's no question that things aren't looking up for the GOP right now, but all is not lost for the dream of a long-term Republican majority. I invite you to return to this blog regularly and help me dissect just exactly where the GOP should go from here and how to make this dream a reality.
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