Saturday, June 03, 2006

Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!

Maybe a Giuliani candidacy makes sense after all. Kelsey Grammer supports him. So does National Review's J-Pod. As I detailed in an earlier post, both McCain and Romney send Republican voters in the double-digits over to Hillary. Each hovers around 80 percent Republican support, far from GWB's whopping 93 percent of the GOP vote. Giuliani, on the other hand, garners between 85 and 90 percent Republican support in a matchup against Hillary. The good mayor also takes nearly 20 percent of Democrats and beats the New York senator by some ridiculous margin among independents. Yes, Rudy would lose a few dark-red voters in the deep south and west, but those states are going to go Republican anyway. The net gain Giuliani would experience nationally due to increasing the GOP margin from 2004 among Democrats and independents would yield an electoral sweep. All of the electoral-rich light-blue states filled with ethnic Catholics and Reagan Democrats --- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota --- would go for Rudy, as would New Hampshire. And Rudy would have a real shot at winning Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware, states that showed signs of a weakened blue hue in 2004. Giuliani's just the kind of Republican that could turn those states red, if only for one election. I suspect a Rudy/Hillary contest would have a result similar to the Bush/Dukakis matchup of 1988: a 7-10 point win for the Republican coinciding with a 40-state landslide in the electoral college.

The question of why nearly 90 percent of Republicans are sticking by the mayor despite his views on cultural matters is one that needs to be answered. Do these Republicans know about Rudy's views on issues like abortion? I have a hard time believing they don't; it's one of the things the MSM loves to remind us about Rudy. Perhaps Rudy just gets along so well with the GOP base that conservatives assume that any attempt to lead them would result in a conversion on the big social issues, like abortion, gay marriage, the Second Amendment, and immigration. The big question now is whether Rudy is willing to do the heavy lifting on these issues in order to appease a base that wants to vote for him. And the even bigger question is whether Rudy will run; he's been doing very little with regards to a presidential campaign, while McCain's been doing a lot.


Blogger Jeff Fuller said...

Of the three, Romney will end up being the one who is most palatable to the GOP base. Once they find out where Giuliani stands on the major conservative issues he will not stand a chance in the GOP primaries (Iowans are not excited about him (see He doesn't stand a chance in South Carolina or anywhere in the south for that matter. He definitely would do well in New Hampshire . . . but so will Romney. I'm hoping that Romney can take Iowa and NH and then Giuliani will bow out. Giuliani hanging in deep into the primaries will really hurt Romney as that will split a lot of the pro-business, moderate Repubican, Northeastern Repbulicans, and Independant voters. I see Romney winning it all if Giuliani doesn't run or bows out early. Not sure if he can do it if Rudy runs.

12:03 AM  

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